![]() ![]() Some fresh analysis from Kyle Kondik at Sabato’s Crystal Ball shows how many Democratic House districts could be in peril. Add in a likely Republican advantage in redistricting prior to 2022 (enhanced by the fact that the GOP will totally control the process in Florida and Texas, which together will gain five House seats), and history would suggest that Democrats have an uphill path to retaining their majority. A swing of just five seats would give Republicans control, and the average swing against the party controlling the White House in midterms since World War II is 27 seats only twice (in 1998 and in 2002) has the White House party actually gained House seats in midterms. Twenty Republican seats are up compared to 15 Democratic ones, and five Senate Republican retirements have already been announced, with others still possible, while so far no Democrats are retiring. Thanks to the staggered nature of Senate elections, 2022 actually doesn’t look bad for Democrats in the upper chamber. If they adjudge themselves likely to lose that trifecta in the midterms, they may take greater risks in getting as much of their agenda enacted now, as opposed to later (including such gambits as Chuck Schumer’s trial balloon on obtaining Senate parliamentarian approval of multiple reconciliation bills for each budget resolution). Joe Biden and his congressional allies are only guaranteed a governing trifecta through the end of next year (and that’s if a Democratic resignation or death doesn’t disrupt the Senate control they hold via Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote). ![]() But she doesn’t want to hand it to Kevin McCarthy.Įlection-weary readers may think it’s too early to pay any attention to the 2022 midterms - but like it or not, they are relevant right now. Pelosi plans to give up her gavel at the end of her current term. ![]()
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